Deutsche Bank recently released an outlook report on the U.S. consumer finance sector for 2026, focusing on the upcoming 2026 performance guidance for seven covered companies.
The bank noted that the impact of this guidance on stock prices often exceeds that of actual fourth-quarter results. Notably, Deutsche Bank highlighted that its greatest divergence from market expectations lies in SoFi Technologies (SOFI)‘s upcoming 2026 EPS guidance. The bank believes market expectations are significantly too low and expects SoFi’s guidance to far exceed consensus. However, even with a positive surprise, Deutsche Bank remains skeptical about further upside potential, given that SoFi trades at approximately 40x its 2026 expected P/E ratio.
The report also covers American Express (AXP), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Ally Financial (ALLY), OneMain Holdings (OMF), Sallie Mae (SLM), and Navient (NAVI).
The following are the specific 2026 guidance outlooks for these seven companies:
American Express (AXP) Deutsche Bank expects growth to slow slightly in FY2026 (8.5% YoY) compared to Amex’s long-term goal of 10%+ revenue growth. This is below the market expectation of 9.0%, primarily due to a high year-over-year base for net card fee income and the gradual realization of incremental fees from Platinum card upgrades throughout the year. Nevertheless, the bank forecasts diluted EPS of $17.75, slightly higher than the consensus of $17.56, aligning with management’s mid-to-long-term double-digit EPS growth target. Additionally, marketing expenses are projected to grow by 10.7% YoY, while Variable Customer Engagement (VCE) is expected to rise by 8.9%.
Synchrony Financial (SYF) Benefiting from its partnership with Walmart (WMT), credit measure adjustments, and a lower 2025 baseline, the bank expects loan receivables to grow 4.75% YoY in 2026—significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.14%. However, due to conservative assumptions regarding Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion, the bank forecasts net revenue of $15.7 billion, lower than the market’s $16.5 billion. Net Charge-Offs (NCOs) are expected to stabilize at 5.60%, largely in line with market expectations, with an efficiency ratio maintained around 33.10%.
Ally Financial (ALLY) After two years of controlling loan growth to adapt to regulatory changes, 2026 is expected to be the inaugural year for Ally Financial’s core lending expansion. The bank forecasts a 1.7% YoY increase in average earning assets for 2026 and an increase in NIM to 3.72% (slightly above the 3.70% market expectation). Retail auto NCOs are projected at 1.85%, reflecting continuous improvement in credit quality. Additionally, adjusted other revenue is expected to grow 3.6% YoY, with operating expense growth capped at 0.2%.
OneMain Holdings (OMF) The bank expects managed receivables for OneMain to grow 6.55% YoY in 2026, lower than the market expectation of 8.00%. This is primarily due to saturation in the personal loan market and limited growth contributions from the auto and credit card segments. Revenue is expected to grow 6.15% YoY, slightly missing the 6.53% market expectation. NCOs are projected at 7.51%, higher than the market’s 7.27%, though management aims to reduce consumer loan NCOs below 7% in the long term. The operating expense ratio is projected at 6.45%.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) As the company with the most comprehensive guidance metrics, SoFi management reaffirmed a 2026 EPS target range of $0.55–$0.80. Deutsche Bank’s midpoint forecast of $0.67 is significantly higher than the current market consensus of $0.58. Driven by the Loan Platform Business (LPB), student loan refinancing, and home loan market share expansion, the bank expects 2026 adjusted net revenue of $4.533 billion, with 3.62 million new members and $5.001 billion in loan growth. Furthermore, non-lending revenue now accounts for 56% of the total, reflecting a continually optimizing business structure. The application of AI and blockchain technologies is expected to provide a foundation for long-term growth.
Sallie Mae (SLM) Driven by the full implementation of the PLUS program reforms, the bank expects Sallie Mae’s private education loan originations to reach $8.5 billion in 2026, with potential partnership increments pushing that figure to $9.3 billion. NCOs are expected to remain stable at 2.10%, within the long-term “high 1% to low 2%” range. Due to increased strategic investments, non-interest expenses are expected to rise to $772 million, leading to an EPS decline to $2.63. However, management expects high single-digit growth to resume in 2027, with double-digit growth achievable in the long term.
Navient (NAVI) Navient is currently in a business transition phase, aiming to pivot more toward consumer credit through its Earnest subsidiary. The bank expects its 2026 private education loan NIM to rise to 2.81% and its FFELP business NIM to reach 0.78%. Private loan originations are expected to grow significantly, benefiting from market opportunities following the cancellation of the GRAD PLUS program. Core EPS is projected at $1.15. Additionally, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives are expected to drive down operating expenses, freeing up space for earnings growth.